The Liquor Premiumization Myth has dominated headlines in 2025. However, what many spirits buyers are seeing at the shelf tells a different story. While some industry reports claim consumers are trading up, real trends show a strong shift toward value spirits and ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails.
This article breaks down the real data behind The Liquor Premiumization Myth. We explore why this narrative has gained traction and how it contrasts with what’s actually happening in stores and bars across the country.
To be balanced, there are isolated market segments that are seeing premium spirits gain momentum. However, we are not seeing any secular, sustained trends across any broad sectors. In fact, we are seeing softness in bourbon and tequila as speculative buying has ebbed and consumers are seeking quality at a fair price, not hyper-inflated by fads, online hype and speculative buying by secondary market internet resellers.
Understanding the Pandemic’s Impact on Alcohol Sales
To understand where we are today, it helps to revisit the pandemic years. Between 2020 and 2021, alcohol consumption skyrocketed. Off-premise sales rose sharply as people stayed home. According to NielsenIQ, March 2020 saw a 54% spike in retail liquor sales.
However, this surge created an inflated benchmark. Since 2022, alcohol volumes have been decreasing—but mostly returning to pre-pandemic levels. This correction has often been misread as a full industry contraction.
Therefore, it is misleading to compare 2025 numbers against the COVID-era spike. When adjusted for context, today’s market looks more stable than shrinking.
Are We Drinking Less or Just Drinking Differently?
Many news articles and reports suggest consumers are drinking less. That is true in some ways. But what’s more accurate is this: they are drinking differently.
Rather than spending on high-end bottles, shoppers are choosing mid-shelf brands, private-label spirits, and RTD cocktails. These choices reflect a focus on convenience, price, and quality—not prestige.
This shift is part of what makes The Liquor Premiumization Myth so misleading. Premium sales have grown in some niche segments, but mass-market behavior tells a different story.
The Real Growth: Value Spirits and RTDs
One major reason The Liquor Premiumization Myth persists is the over-reporting of high-end spirits growth. But actual unit sales show a different pattern.
In 2025, many liquor stores and bars report stronger movement in:
- Mid-tier vodkas and whiskeys
- Store-brand spirits
- Canned and bottled RTD cocktails
RTDs are particularly strong. According to IWSR’s latest report, RTDs are now the fastest-growing alcohol segment. They appeal to younger drinkers and consumers who want fast, easy choices.
The affordability of RTDs and value spirits also matches today’s economic reality. Inflation, high interest rates, and tighter budgets are shaping what customers buy. It’s no surprise that convenience and price now lead many purchase decisions.
RTD Market Growth: Verified Trends and Forward-Looking Projections
The ready-to-drink (RTD) alcohol category continues to outperform traditional spirits in volume growth. According to Penn State Extension, RTD sales in the U.S. increased by 19.5% in volume for the 12-month period ending December 28, 2024. This represents the third consecutive year of double-digit gains, confirming the staying power of the category.
Looking forward, industry analysts anticipate continued momentum. A 2025 outlook from InsightAce Analytics projects the global RTD alcohol market will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% through 2034. Meanwhile, a separate forecast published by GlobeNewswire estimates the U.S. RTD segment will grow from $860 million in 2024 to $2.66 billion by 2033.
While these projections suggest sustained category growth, spirits buyers should continue to monitor actual in-store sell-through data. Recent historical performance, rather than long-horizon forecasts, offers the most practical guidance for near-term purchasing decisions.
“After traveling across the country with Felene President Kim Veiga—visiting dozens of bars, restaurants, and liquor stores—we saw the reality firsthand. From California to Illinois to New York, the trend was consistent: value spirits and ready-to-drink options are driving the most movement. Bartenders are asking for affordable pours, and retailers are giving more shelf space to single-serve RTDs. The disconnect between syndicated premiumization reports and what’s actually happening on the ground has never been more clear.”
The Liquor Premiumization Myth and Echo-Chamber Reporting
The Liquor Premiumization Myth continues in part because syndicated research reports often come from premium brand stakeholders. These reports usually emphasize top-shelf trends.
However, in most retail locations, premium bottle sales are not growing as fast as advertised. In fact, store managers are reducing their shelf space for ultra-premium SKUs and expanding lower-priced selections.
The myth has also been pushed by legacy thinking. For years, success meant “trading consumers up.” But now, many shoppers are trading sideways—or even down—in price while prioritizing flavor, format, and availability.
As a result, it’s time for spirits buyers to rethink old models and examine their sales data carefully.
A Case Study: RNDC’s Exit from California
Another layer of confusion comes from recent distributor shifts. In 2025, Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC), the second-largest liquor distributor in the U.S., announced it would exit California.
The decision affects over 1,700 employees and surprised many in the industry. On the surface, it might appear to support the idea that alcohol sales are falling fast.
However, closer analysis points to business execution issues rather than a complete market downturn. RNDC reportedly lost key supplier relationships and faced rising costs that made operations in California unsustainable.
So, while the exit is significant, it is not proof of a full-blown collapse. Instead, it reflects the importance of smart planning and the ability to adapt to new consumer realities.
What Spirits Buyers Should Take from This
The Liquor Premiumization Myth distracts from the actual opportunities in 2025. Spirits buyers in both retail and hospitality should watch what shoppers are really doing—not what industry forecasts predict.
To stay ahead, buyers should:
- Focus on value spirits that offer good margins and high sell-through
- Expand RTD offerings, especially in single-serve formats
- Track consumer behavior locally, not just through national data
- Maintain flexibility in SKUs and shelf space allocation
These strategies will help buyers serve today’s customer more effectively—and profitably.
A Note from Pour Decisions
In past reports, we discussed premiumization trends in glowing terms. While those trends were real for a subset of the market, we now recognize that broader shifts in behavior were already forming.
Moving forward, Pour Decisions will continue to report based on verified sales data and retailer feedback. We’re committed to staying ahead of what’s next—not just echoing what’s already been said.
Conclusion: Let Real Behavior Lead the Way
The Liquor Premiumization Myth doesn’t hold up under close review. Most consumers today are choosing value and convenience over high-end prestige.
That doesn’t mean premium is dead. But it does mean that relying on premiumization alone could leave shelves mismatched with actual demand.
Spirits buyers should trust their POS data, listen to their customers, and watch what leaves the shelf—not just what makes headlines.
